Bumpy weather approaching
As far as the global economy is concerned, no-one knows if we are too hot or too cold. So strap in. Tips enclosed to help you make sense and get through.
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As we await the interest-rate setting decision of the Fed in the USA shortly, global markets are holding their breath. Is inflation now entrenched meaning that central banks need to hike further to cool demand and hopefully arrest escalating prices, or are these price increases transitory, meaning that central banks may end up over-tightening our belts and sending economies into recession?
No-one really knows, but there are a couple of reckons to think about.
Are we entering an era where we pay what things actually cost? Have we been living a subsidised life which has skewed our sense of reality? Have we been externalising the costs of climate damage, cheap fossil energy, and under-paying for labour? Are we about to say goodbye to cheap amenities and food? Have we been getting a free ride for too long?
Alternatively, are we overplaying this?
We’re still recovering this week after the tornado of illness that swept through our family last week - thanks to all who’ve checked in to see how we are.
Enjoy this edition of Noise Reduction - and please share with your friends.
What’s going on in Ukraine?
It’s been a while since I posted an update about this and you may have tuned out after 100 days of this war, but the situation is pretty dire.
Fighting has become mired in the Donbas region. But after weeks of intense fighting, Russia appeared closer than ever to claiming Sievierodonetsk, potentially handing President Putin a substantial victory he can present to the Russian people.
European nations and their allies are now forced to confront a very real and deadly conundrum: Arming Ukraine is not turning the tide. Is the answer vastly more weapons, as Ukraine says, or a bitter truce?
Europeans expect the conflict to continue, with neither side ready or willing to engage in meaningful negotiations until the fighting either bogs down or one side gains a decisive advantage. The question may be what outcome, if any, might allow both sides to claim a victory.
The Trade War no-one wants
As the UK Government prepares to pass unilateral legislation with changes to the Brexit deal relating to Northern Ireland, a trade war is brewing. There’s some likelihood that these may actually be illegal, and the European Union is preparing to respond with tariffs and other measures.
We will try to calm down the situation between France and the United Kingdom as much as possible, because I believe that only Putin and our enemies will be happy with yet another disagreement between such close partners as the United Kingdom and the European Union - Mateusz Morawiecki, Prime Minister, Poland
With the world economy already reeling with the impacts of the Ukraine War, energy supply and rising costs of living, this is probably the last thing anyone needs right now. Apart from serving the internal machinations of the ruling Tory party, it’s hard to see how this is helpful.
How important is optimism for longevity?
The latest research seems to indicate it is just as important as exercise if you want to live beyond 90 years old.
The findings, gathered across 26 years of study from 159,255 racially diverse women with a wide array of backgrounds, found that optimistic participants lived 5.4% longer than their non-optimistic counterparts – that translates to roughly four more years of life.
For natural-born optimists, this is great news. For anyone else, it’s a potential downer. So what do you do if optimism isn’t something that comes easily to you?
It’s OK to have a positive and optimistic outlook and feel sad at the same time … We can feel sad and be grieving and still look forward to the future. Both of those are necessary for a healthy outlook and sense of well-being - Natalie Dattilo - Clinical Health Psychologist
Sounds a lot like the mix of emotions that people may be experiencing right now. More about this story and tips here.
Viruses behaving badly
Not only are diseases suppressed during Covid coming back, but they are doing so in new and peculiar ways. We’ve seen this first hand in our household.
Influenza, Respiratory syncytial virus, adenovirus, tuberculosis and monkeypox are among a number of illnesses to have spiked and exhibited strange behaviours in recent months. Health experts say Covid-19 restrictions could have reduced exposure and lowered immunity to infectious diseases, making society more vulnerable to new outbreaks. But we also need to beware of surveillance bias:
It’s not that the disease is more prevalent, but that it gets more attention - Professor Eyal Leshem, infectious disease specialist
Look, listen, read
What I’m reading: Klara and the Sun, by Kazuo Ishiguro. Just hit a plot twist last night. I’m loving reading fiction again.
What I’m listening to: Catch-up podcasts of Test Match Special of the England v New Zealand series - it’s been amazing.
What I’m watching: Ted Lasso Season 2 on AppleTV+ - It’s been disappointing.
It’s 2032: Meet your digital double
You've heard from friends that you have a double - someone who looks just like you. But imagine if you could create an exact copy of yourself who lived a purely digital life ...
You've heard from friends that you have a double - someone who looks just like you. But imagine if you could create an exact copy of yourself who lived a purely digital life ...
We live in an era where everything that exists in reality is being replicated digitally — our cities, our cars and our homes, and even us.
Just like the hugely hyped metaverse - plans for a virtual, digital realm where an avatar of yourself will walk around - digital twins have become a hot new technology trend. All available within the next decade. Supposedly. And it might not be fun times, all the time.
The emergence of these will need a huge amount of thought and ethical consideration, because a thinking replica of ourselves could be incredibly useful to employers … What happens if your company creates a digital twin of you, and says 'hey, you've got this digital twin who we pay no salary to, so why are we still employing you?'? - Rob Enderle, technology analyst
Can walking build muscle?
Walking is great for our cardiovascular fitness, but can it also help us to build muscle too? Yes, if you do it right.
So what does doing it right look like?
Walking on trails, roads, grass, inclined or uneven surfaces, or unstable ones like sand or gravel, will challenge the muscles of your lower leg, ankles and feet more than on pavement, and they’ll have to work harder to maintain balance and stability,… Try alternating the route of your walk to include a few different inclines and surfaces, and if you find a set of stairs along your walk, take them - Brett Starkowitz, Master Trainer
The Heart and Covid - it spares no-one
Even more reason to avoid infection with Covid if you can: even mild or asymptomatic infection seems to increase your risk of heart problems, months and perhaps even years later.
Until now, people who suffered mild or asymptomatic COVID-19 were thought to have dodged the brunt of the virus’s brutal side effects. But new evidence has revealed that anyone infected with COVID is at higher risk for heart issues—including clots, inflammation, and arrhythmias—a risk that persists even in relatively healthy people long after the illness has passed
In this Q&A, Ziyad Al-Aly, director of the Clinical Epidemiology Center and chief of Research and Education Service at Veterans Affairs St. Louis Health Care System, talks about his recent study, which found a significant risk of heart problems in people a year after being diagnosed with COVID.
I went into it thinking that [the risk] was going to be most pronounced and evident in people who smoked a lot or had diabetes, heart disease, kidney disease, or some [other] risk factors. What we found is that even in people who did not have any heart problems start with, were athletic, did not have a high BMI, were not obese, did not smoke, did not have kidney disease or diabetes—even in people who were previously healthy and had no risk factors or problems with the heart—COVID-19 affected them in such a way that manifested the higher risk of heart problems than people who did not get COVID-19.
There is no happily ever after and that’s ok
What most of us long for above all else is certainty and security, the feeling that we are – at last – safe on the earth.
We live in hope of achieving a shifting set of goals: a fulfilling relationship, a home, children, a wonderful career, public respect, perhaps a nest-egg to fall back upon for a rainy day. When they're ours, we reverently believe we will finally feel at peace. We often think of the word “happily ever after” as something that happens to children’s stories, but in reality, we tend toward living as if we could one someday reach a place of rest and happiness.
Does “ever after” ever happen? Most likely not. But we can still find healthy and fulfilling ways to live with that.
We can never properly be secure, because so long as we are alive, we will be alert to danger and in some way at risk. The only people with full security are the dead; the only people who can be truly at peace are under the ground; cemeteries are the only definitively calm places around.
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